In the 1990s Philip Morris set up a very interesting program of forecasts called Project Sunrise. Contrary to the common media depiction, there is nothing evil or insidious about Project Sunrise. In fact, these forecasts of America's possible future 10 to 20 years out from the 1990s is fascinating. Project Sunrise set up four possible future scenarios for the United States, naming them "Mostly Sunny," "Avalanche," "New Game," and "Blade Runner."
I have one document with each of the four scenarios side by side. This one is interesting because it covers everything that is part of our daily life from economy, health, socialization, technology, politics, and even a pharmaceutical nicotine monopoly. From a literary standpoint it's fascinating to see how there are so many paths we can choose and the predictable results of them.
Avalanche is the worst possible scenario envisioned for the country with freedoms limited, privacy eroded, hatred high, and a national healthcare program. The only hope is the younger generation who may, with persistence and wisdom beyond our years, throw off the yoke of bondage placed upon us by the self-obsessed Baby Boomers, thieves of our livelihood and freedoms.
The following is from a presentation on the "Avalanche" scenario of the future by Tim Beane for Philip Morris in 1999. Of course, some of the predictions were off, such as predicting Al Gore would win the presidency after Clinton's time was up. But generally, speaking it is still fairly accurate:
I have one document with each of the four scenarios side by side. This one is interesting because it covers everything that is part of our daily life from economy, health, socialization, technology, politics, and even a pharmaceutical nicotine monopoly. From a literary standpoint it's fascinating to see how there are so many paths we can choose and the predictable results of them.
Avalanche is the worst possible scenario envisioned for the country with freedoms limited, privacy eroded, hatred high, and a national healthcare program. The only hope is the younger generation who may, with persistence and wisdom beyond our years, throw off the yoke of bondage placed upon us by the self-obsessed Baby Boomers, thieves of our livelihood and freedoms.
The following is from a presentation on the "Avalanche" scenario of the future by Tim Beane for Philip Morris in 1999. Of course, some of the predictions were off, such as predicting Al Gore would win the presidency after Clinton's time was up. But generally, speaking it is still fairly accurate:
http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/vex75c00/pdf
"It is now October 2006 and, in contrast to Mostly Sunny and New Game, these are the images which have shaped the world for smokers in the U.S. over the past ten years. In Avalanche, a victimization ethos and an increasingly polarized society have created an environment where smokers, smoking and tobacco companies experience losses on many fronts. Smoker discrimination, restrictive legislation, litigation setbacks, negative media coverage, powerful enemies [Big Pharmaceutical Nicotine, Johnson & Johnson, Robert Wood Johnson (Synthetic Toxic Nicotine)Foundation, Corrupt States] and ally erosion define our world.
"How did our environment deteriorate to this point? Well, in retrospect, the seeds of our current situation were sown in late 1996 when, following Clinton's re-election, the U.S. economy entered a deep and protracted recession. Unemployment grew rapidly, the budget deficit ballooned and the combination of a Democratic President and a Republican Congress was unable to deal with the economic situation.
"An angry national mood, fueled by the paralysis in Washington, led to a broad based desire for an interventionist government. In the 1998 mid-term elections, Democrats took control of the House and Senate. This resulted in a more liberal government and one which conveniently blamed smokers and tobacco companies for many of society's financial and health care problems.
"By playing on the prejudices of a public looking for scapegoats and easy answers, it soon became a relatively simple task for the newly empowered government to implement strong-arm social policies targeting smokers, smoking, and tobacco companies.
"The boomers populating the second Clinton administration, and later, Gore's first, eagerly did what they felt was best for society. A single payer healthcare system was established. New environmental, health and safety requirements were passed. A tougher FDA evolved, one with undisputed control over cigarettes.
"This environment resulted in an ever increasing erosion of smoker rights. The social acceptability of smokers and smoking reached new lows as the very act of smoking came to be seen by many as impinging on everyone else's privacy. Although the importance of privacy was highly valued, events occurred which in effect compromised individual privacy.
"For instance, in an effort to allocate societal costs on those who were deemed responsible, legislation passed which made selected information about a person's health and personal habits available to employers, landlords, and insurance companies. This information could be used in making employment decisions and in determining insurance premiums. As you might expect, smokers did not fare well in these situations.
"When and where a person could smoke became more and more constrained. The rights of non-smokers began taking legal precedence whenever smokers and non-smokers were together. Depending on who they were with, smokers could even be prevented from smoking in their own homes or cars.
"Even outdoors, smokers are now harassed and marginalized because society views smoking as a costly vice. Costly for the smoker yes, but more importantly, the prevailing attitude is that smoking is costly for society as a whole. Simply put, the attitude now is your smoking costs me money so stop doing it.
"The cumulative impact of all of this is that smoking has become almost devoid of pleasure. Almost everyone, including some smokers, views smoking as a dirty habit, one not worthy of a respectable person. Smoker's are angry at themselves, the government, the anti's and even the tobacco companies. They are also ashamed of themselves and of how they are now defined by this new society--'the nicotine dependant weaklings.'
"Tobacco companies are severely limited in their ability to improve the situation for smokers. The anti movement is strong, well-funded [by Big Pharma Nicotine companies and "philanthropies" such as Nicorette and Robert Wood Johnson (Synthetic Nicotine) Foundation] and emboldened by its successes...."
"This media frenzy is epitomized by Smoke Out, a popular new TV show which follows law enforcement officers as they conduct sting operations, intercept cigarette smugglers and track down smokers as they light up in restricted areas."
"Smokers were singled out to help ease the country's economic problems through large and repeated excise tax increases...."
"So in summary, what does our world look like in 2006 [or 2010]? We see angry and alienated smokers who are segregated and subjected to discrimination in very real ways. We see smoking as ever more restricted both legislatively and by an intolerant society. We see government controlled by people who think they know what's best for everyone and are given the mandate to act on this knowledge. We see tobacco companies without allies and who are hamstrung in their ability to defend themselves and to compete [against Big State & Pharma Nicotine]. In short, we see a set of individuals and an industry frozen in an onrushing avalanche[of Big Pharma Nicotine candy, gums; and suicide, cancer, and diabetes-inducing drugs marketed variously as Nicotine Replacement Therapy, Breathing Cessation, Life Replacement Therapy, or simply Uncle Sam Wants You(th Dead)].
"If there is hope, it is in the fact that young adults resent the controls of big government and the pious morality of the aging boomer generation [yes, we do!]. They believe strongly in personal choice and as their rebellion begins to translate into political and economic power [if the boomers don't suck out our life blood first], opportunities may occur to reshape the debate. The boomers will not go quietly [oh, they may, since they're addicted to toxic Big Pharma dope in their bottles] however and it may be a long time before the avalanche recedes and a more open society emerges" ("Avalanche" scenario, Tim Beane, Philip Morris Tobacco, 1999; emphasis and brackets, mine).
"It is now October 2006 and, in contrast to Mostly Sunny and New Game, these are the images which have shaped the world for smokers in the U.S. over the past ten years. In Avalanche, a victimization ethos and an increasingly polarized society have created an environment where smokers, smoking and tobacco companies experience losses on many fronts. Smoker discrimination, restrictive legislation, litigation setbacks, negative media coverage, powerful enemies [Big Pharmaceutical Nicotine, Johnson & Johnson, Robert Wood Johnson (Synthetic Toxic Nicotine)Foundation, Corrupt States] and ally erosion define our world.
"How did our environment deteriorate to this point? Well, in retrospect, the seeds of our current situation were sown in late 1996 when, following Clinton's re-election, the U.S. economy entered a deep and protracted recession. Unemployment grew rapidly, the budget deficit ballooned and the combination of a Democratic President and a Republican Congress was unable to deal with the economic situation.
"An angry national mood, fueled by the paralysis in Washington, led to a broad based desire for an interventionist government. In the 1998 mid-term elections, Democrats took control of the House and Senate. This resulted in a more liberal government and one which conveniently blamed smokers and tobacco companies for many of society's financial and health care problems.
"By playing on the prejudices of a public looking for scapegoats and easy answers, it soon became a relatively simple task for the newly empowered government to implement strong-arm social policies targeting smokers, smoking, and tobacco companies.
"The boomers populating the second Clinton administration, and later, Gore's first, eagerly did what they felt was best for society. A single payer healthcare system was established. New environmental, health and safety requirements were passed. A tougher FDA evolved, one with undisputed control over cigarettes.
"This environment resulted in an ever increasing erosion of smoker rights. The social acceptability of smokers and smoking reached new lows as the very act of smoking came to be seen by many as impinging on everyone else's privacy. Although the importance of privacy was highly valued, events occurred which in effect compromised individual privacy.
"For instance, in an effort to allocate societal costs on those who were deemed responsible, legislation passed which made selected information about a person's health and personal habits available to employers, landlords, and insurance companies. This information could be used in making employment decisions and in determining insurance premiums. As you might expect, smokers did not fare well in these situations.
"When and where a person could smoke became more and more constrained. The rights of non-smokers began taking legal precedence whenever smokers and non-smokers were together. Depending on who they were with, smokers could even be prevented from smoking in their own homes or cars.
"Even outdoors, smokers are now harassed and marginalized because society views smoking as a costly vice. Costly for the smoker yes, but more importantly, the prevailing attitude is that smoking is costly for society as a whole. Simply put, the attitude now is your smoking costs me money so stop doing it.
"The cumulative impact of all of this is that smoking has become almost devoid of pleasure. Almost everyone, including some smokers, views smoking as a dirty habit, one not worthy of a respectable person. Smoker's are angry at themselves, the government, the anti's and even the tobacco companies. They are also ashamed of themselves and of how they are now defined by this new society--'the nicotine dependant weaklings.'
"Tobacco companies are severely limited in their ability to improve the situation for smokers. The anti movement is strong, well-funded [by Big Pharma Nicotine companies and "philanthropies" such as Nicorette and Robert Wood Johnson (Synthetic Nicotine) Foundation] and emboldened by its successes...."
"This media frenzy is epitomized by Smoke Out, a popular new TV show which follows law enforcement officers as they conduct sting operations, intercept cigarette smugglers and track down smokers as they light up in restricted areas."
"Smokers were singled out to help ease the country's economic problems through large and repeated excise tax increases...."
"So in summary, what does our world look like in 2006 [or 2010]? We see angry and alienated smokers who are segregated and subjected to discrimination in very real ways. We see smoking as ever more restricted both legislatively and by an intolerant society. We see government controlled by people who think they know what's best for everyone and are given the mandate to act on this knowledge. We see tobacco companies without allies and who are hamstrung in their ability to defend themselves and to compete [against Big State & Pharma Nicotine]. In short, we see a set of individuals and an industry frozen in an onrushing avalanche[of Big Pharma Nicotine candy, gums; and suicide, cancer, and diabetes-inducing drugs marketed variously as Nicotine Replacement Therapy, Breathing Cessation, Life Replacement Therapy, or simply Uncle Sam Wants You(th Dead)].
"If there is hope, it is in the fact that young adults resent the controls of big government and the pious morality of the aging boomer generation [yes, we do!]. They believe strongly in personal choice and as their rebellion begins to translate into political and economic power [if the boomers don't suck out our life blood first], opportunities may occur to reshape the debate. The boomers will not go quietly [oh, they may, since they're addicted to toxic Big Pharma dope in their bottles] however and it may be a long time before the avalanche recedes and a more open society emerges" ("Avalanche" scenario, Tim Beane, Philip Morris Tobacco, 1999; emphasis and brackets, mine).
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